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The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession, by Richard C. Koo
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The revised edition of this highly acclaimed work presents crucial lessons from Japan's recession that could aid the US and other economies as they struggle to recover from the current financial crisis.
This book is about Japan's 15-year long recession and how it affected current theoretical thinking about its causes and cures. It has a detailed explanation on what happened to Japan, but the discoveries made are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macroeconomic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked.
The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory- The Holy Grail of Macro Economics
- Sales Rank: #634018 in Books
- Published on: 2009-08-17
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.08" h x 1.05" w x 6.02" l, 1.18 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 352 pages
Review
Reviews from the previous edition
"...provide fascinating insights into the problems of Japan...interesting thesis" (Wilmott.com/blogs, August 2009)
"…the Japanese policymakers who told everyone the US was in danger of falling into a prolonged period of economic weakness were right. To understand why this is true, you need to read a brilliant book by Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute." (Financial Times, January 2009)
"…the definitive book on Japan's decade-long recession in the 1990s." (USA Today, March 2009)
"Books about the current global economic crisis are being written and published by the truckload. But few – perhaps none – are worth reading… Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo, a think tank attached to Japan's biggest investment bank, watched Japan's 'lost decade' from an excellent vantage point: he was close enough to understand the detail, data and ways in which both corporate and political decisions were made, and independent enough to be able to analyse what happened in a reasonably detached and cool way." (Survival, May 2009)
"A must-read to an understanding of what Japan went through and what the United States and Europe may experience is Koo's latest book The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession." (The Edge Financial Daily, December 2008)
From the Inside Flap
How did the great Depression of the 1930s get to be so bad for so long? That question has baffled economists for decades. Ben S. Bernanke, the current Fed Chairman, even called understanding the great Depression the as yet-unattained "holy Grail of Macroeconomics." Japan's Great recession of 1990-2005 finally gave us some vital clues as to how a post-bubble economy can plunge into prolonged recession while leaving conventional policy responses largely ineffective.
Building on the author's earlier work Balance Sheet Recession: Japan's Struggle with Uncharted Economics and its Global Implications (John Wiley, Singapore, 2003), The Holy Grail of Macroenomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession argues that there are actually two phases to an economy, the ordinary (or yang) phase, in which the private sector is maximizing profits, and the post-bubble (or yin) phase, in which private sector is minimizing debt, or repairing damaged balance sheets. Although conventional economics is useful in analyzing economies in the yang phase, it is less useful in explaining phenomena such as the "liquidity trap" that is typical of an economy in the yin phase. The distinction between the yin and yang phases also explains why some policies work well in some situations but not in others. Indeed, it offers the crucial foundation to macroeconomics that has been missing since the days of Keynes.
This groundbreaking book not only explains what happened to the U.S. during the Great Depression and to Japan during the Great recession, it also offers important policy recommendations for fighting post-bubble economic downturns in any country, including the current subprime crisis in the U.S.
From the Back Cover
There will probably never be a last word on the Japanese financial catastrophe of the 1990s but Richard Koo's book may be the most significant analysis ever published. Agree or disagree, any analyst of the current United States situation must consider Koo's arguments. - Lawrence H. Summers
Richard Koo does it again. By presenting a unique theory regarding the great Depression and Japan's recession of the last 15 years. Koo offers a new understanding of current problems in the U.S. and other economies. With many pearls of analytical wisdom, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's great recession is a must-read for economist, policymakers and individual investors alike. - Nobuyuki Idei
Richard Koo's pioneering work on balance-sheet recession has been invaluable in understanding the difficulty faced by Japan's economy and monetary authorities during the past 15 years. In this book, he has shown that the U.S. Great Depression was also driven by the same balance sheet concerns of the private sector, indicating that this kid of recession can happen to any post-bubble economy. I sincerely hope that the lessons contained in this book are put to good use in fighting similar recessions elsewhere, including the U.S. subprime crisis. - Yasushi Mieno
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics presents a brilliant and original framework for understanding-and overcoming-a post-bubble economic crisis such as the one the world faces today. By discrediting the conventional view that monetary policy is effective in combating a post-bubble recession, Richard Koo has made an invaluable contribution to economic theory and at just the right time. Only fiscal stimulus on a very large scale can prevent a severe global slump in the years ahead. This is an important book. It should be required reading for economic policy makers all around the world. - Richard Duncan
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
important work on debt aversion
By A. Menon
This book is a good account of the phenomenon of debt aversion. The thesis of the book is pretty straightforward and is that, after asset bubbles burst and businesses are technically insolvent through liquidation analysis, they are likely to pay down debt irrespective of monetary policy. The fact that the businesses are technically insolvent despite market prices is described as being a function of information asymmetry and bank incentives.
This realization is deemed to be the missing link to complete economist's understanding of how to bridge fiscal macroeconomic thought and monetary economic thought and the solutions required in the aftermath of a burst asset bubble. Discussing the shortfalls of Friedman's positions on the demand function for money to be a function of nominal interest rates, it is argued that when one is in the position of being insolvent yet operational, the focus shifts from using lending lines to maximise ROE to using free cashflow to minimize the debt that is causing this insolvency. When this market regime is upon us, it is the need of the government to use fiscal policy to fund the output gap.
I think this is pretty accurate as an analysis of the problems that arise in monetary policy when the world is in fear of the phenomenon that hurt them (being burdened with debt that is greater relative to the asset base one had assumed would back it) and this aversion has macroeconomic repurcussions. My only criticism is, I dont think this is as obscure a result as is described. Most ecnomists realize how output gaps can arise, how debt aversion can form. Richard Posner, who is a judge, talks about debt aversion off-hand as though its well known. So all in all i think its a god perscriptive piece on a very real phenomenon we deal with but its not revolutionary and this phenomenon is discussed by others (though few have gone in to as much detail about it).
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
One of the most original books on macroeconomics in a decade - a must read for any serious student of macroeconomics
By Yoda
In this book Dr. Koo posits that economies in a balance sheet recession, as opposed to a slow down due to decline in aggregate demand, due not respond to textbook monetary remedies involving the use of expansionary monetary policy. The reason, he proposes, is that during this period companies and households are primarily interested in reducing their debt balances. Hence low interest rates provide little incentive for economic actors to invest. The impact is the same as in a Keynesian liquidity trap framework. However, the reason is different. In a liquidity trap, as Keynes proposed, monetary policy is not effective because economic actors do not demand funds because they see no need to invest as they see insufficient demand for their product. In Dr. Koo's framework, these same actors instead are too busy reducing their debt holdings. In this framework, Dr. Koo proposes, monetary policy is not effective while fiscal policy is. Dr. Koo is very careful to emphasize, however, that fiscal effeciveness in the Japanese case has consisted of preventing a collapse of the Japanese economy as opposed to providing a gross positive increase in either employment or GDP. This has made it difficult for proponents to justify the continuation of the policies. Dr. Koo specifically examines the case of the recent 15 year Japanese recession to make his point. This he does well by providing considerable empirical evidence for his views. He makes his argument very convincingly. As a result this is must read book for any serious student of macroeconomics. Considering the fact that the developed world's economies are facing a similar debt problem Dr. Koo's arguments need to be seriously and closely examined.
Despite its strengths, Dr. Koo's framework does have weaknesses. The most important of these, by far, involves the accumulation of debt. Dr. Koo proscribes expansionary fiscal policy to offset the private sectors debt reduction but the million dollar question becomes how long can this continue? Is there a point at which public sector debt accumulation reaches the point where it proves counterproductive? This is a very important question as Japan's GDP to debt ratio, at the time of the latest printing of this book, was about 220%. Authors such as Rogoff (see his "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly"), in their research, posit that when debt levels reach about 80% of GDP fiscal policy becomes less efffective. Hence a very important question, very relevant to Dr. Koo's framework, is when does debt reach a limit at which it can limit the use of fiscal policy. This is question that needs to be, simultaneously, answered for Dr. Koo's framework to be applied in real life policy framework over a long term period.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting Implications
By Christopher Wolfe
I think this book adds an interesting dimension to macroeconomic thinking. The concept that a negative net worth will make businesses and individuals unresponsive to monetary policy (as they repay debt) has negative implications for aggregate demand. The prescription for fiscal stimulus seems sound, but Koo never describes what happens when governments themselves become insolvent (he just proves that no stimulus leads to higher deficits, without talking much about when government debt is unsustainable). In light of the current Eurozone crisis this is an unfortunate gap.
The book is written in an engaging style, although it is a bit repetitive. The discussion focuses mostly on the historical data necessary to prove the validity of the ideas and the implication of the ideas for policy. With such significant implications for macroeconomic models it is unfortunate that a new or adjusted macroeconomic model was not provided. Overall I really enjoyed this book, I just wish I understood all of its implications.
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